ObamaTracker

FOX News Poll: Obama Maintains Lead Over McCain

Barack Obama leads John McCain by 46 percent to 39 percent, according to a FOX News national registered voter poll released Friday. Two weeks ago Obama led by 45 percent to 39 percent (Sept. 22-23). Obama's advantage comes mainly from doing better among women, blacks, young voters, those with a college degree, and unmarried voters. He has increased his edge over McCain among women to 16 percentage points, up from a 4-point edge last month (Sept. 8-9). Independents split their vote 34 percent Obama and 32 percent McCain, with 24 percent unsure. That's little changed from two weeks ago when Obama was up by 36 percent to 31 percent and 29 percent undecided.

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Fox News/Rasmussen Poll: Obama Widens Lead in Three Battleground States

The latest FOX News/Rasmussen Poll shows that Obama has made significant gains in the battleground states of Colorado, Missouri and Florida, while there was little change since last week's poll in Ohio and Virginia.

All five of these states were won by George W. Bush and the Republicans four years ago. Obama now holds at least a modest edge in four of the five states and is essentially even in Ohio.

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Obama gains ground in battleground states

Key quote: "The latest FOX News/Rasmussen Reports show that Barack Obama has increased his lead over John McCain in Pennsylvania and Virginia. The candidates are within a single point of each other in Colorado, Florida and Ohio.

The increasing numbers of undecided and third party votes in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida suggest opportunities for both candidates in the coming week. Given the overall trends, these voters may be having doubts about McCain but are not yet ready to vote for Obama."

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Election 2008: Florida Presidential Election

Election 2008: Florida Presidential Election

McCain Only Ahead By One Now in Florida

Friday, September 26, 2008

The race for Floridas Electoral College votes is closer now than it was just a few days ago. Consistent with a pattern found in national polls and in several other state polls, John McCain has lost ground in the Sunshine State, but support for Barack Obama hasnt increased.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain on top 48% to 47%. The previous poll, conducted Sunday night showed McCain on top 51% to 46%.

Both candidates are now viewed favorably by 55% of Florida voters. Thats unchanged for McCain but a five-point improvement for Obama.

Seventy-nine percent (79%) of Obama voters say they are voting with enthusiasm for their candidate, an attitude shared by 67% of McCain supporters.

Thirty-one percent (31%) of McCain voters say they are primarily voting against Obama while 19% of the Democrats voters are primarily voting against McCain.

The survey was conducted Wednesday night, the night that President Bush addressed the nation on the economic crisis. National surveys conducted in recent days show that opposition to the Administrations bailout plan has been growing and that most Americans are now worried the federal government will do too much rather than too little.

A separate Rasmussen national poll released last week found that most voters are not yet convinced that either candidate can handle the economic crisis.

McCain leads 78% to 19% among politically conservative Florida voters while Obama leads 89% to 8% among political liberals. Obama also holds a 17-point advantage among self-described political moderates while McCain benefits from the fact that there are more conservative voters than liberals.

Rasmussen Markets data currently gives McCain a 63.1% chance of winning Floridas 27 Electoral College votes in November. At the time this poll was released, Florida was rated as Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper righthand corner of this article.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 28% of Florida voters, down from 34% just a few days ago. Fifty-four percent (54%) now say the President is doing a poor job.

Florida Governor Charlie Crist is rated good or excellent by 54% of voters, versus only 17% say he is doing a poor job.

Election 2008: Virginia Presidential Election

Obama Takes Five-Point Lead in Virginia

Friday, September 26, 2008

Matching a trend seen in national polling, Barack Obama has pulled ahead of John McCain in Virginia over the past week as the Wall Street financial crunch has put economic concerns front and center.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds Obama with 50% of the vote while McCain earns 45%. Last Sunday, McCain was up two points. The week before, the candidates were tied.

The current poll marks the first time that either candidate has had more than a two-point advantage in Virginia since May. George W. Bush won Virginia by eight percentage points in 2000 and 2004, but Democrats have focused on Virginia this year as a red state they hope to peel away from Republicans.

Just nine percent (9%) of Virginia voters rate the economy as good or excellent while 57% say it is in poor shape. Just five percent (5%) say the economy is getting better; 83% say it is getting worse.

Investors, who typically offer a more positive view of economic conditions, are just as pessimistic as non-investors. Obama leads by four points among Investors, which is a stunning number given that investors generally lean more heavily in the GOP direction than non-investors.

Fifty-two percent (52%) of Virginia voters name the economy as the top issue of Election 2008.

Overall, 50% trust Obama more when it comes to the economy while 44% have more confidence in McCain. The survey was conducted on Thursday night as a White House meeting attempted to rescue the financial bailout bill being promoted by the Bush Administration. Public opposition to the measure has grown and 63% are now worried the federal government will try to do too much to resolve the financial crunch. Just 25% are concerned that the government wont do enough.

Nationally, on the morning of the first debate, Obama has opened a five-percentage point lead over McCain in the Rasmussen Daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

McCains support from Republicans has slipped from 90% last week to 86% in the current survey. His 13-point advantage among unaffiliated voters in the earlier survey has vanished, with the two candidates essentially even among those voters now. Obama draws support from 92% of Democrats.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of Virginia voters, up six points. McCain is viewed favorably by 54%, a four-point decline.

FOX News Poll: Obama Reclaims Lead Over McCain, 45% to 39%

Key quote: "Barack Obama has recaptured the lead — 45 percent to 39 percent — over John McCain in the presidential race, according to a FOX News poll released Wednesday."

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Election 2008: California Presidential Election

Obama Ahead 56% to 39% in Vote-rich California

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of California voters makes it clear why John McCain isn’t predicating his election strategy on carrying the nation’s most populous state and its 54 Electoral College votes. Republican presidential candidate in 1988, haven’t been swayed by McCain’s selection of Sarah Palin as a running mate either. The Alaska governor is viewed favorably by 39% and unfavorably by 55%. That latter figure includes 40% with a Very Unfavorably opinion. Thirty-eight percent (38%) say McCain made the right choice when he picked her, but 53% say he didn’t.

Rasmussen Market data show that Democrats have a 91.0 % chance of winning California this November. Al Gore beat George W. Bush by 11 points in California in the 2000 election, and four years later John Kerry carried the state by 10 points.

Forty-three percent (43%) say economic issues are the most important concern of this election year, while 21% believe national security is paramount.

Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger’s job performance earns good or excellent marks from 38% of voters, up 10 points from a month ago, but 29% say he is doing a poor job. The latter is down three from August.

President Bush, as in much of the country, fares much worse. Just 24% rate his job performance good or excellent, but 60% grade him poor.

Barack Obama now leads McCain 56% to 39% in California.

Obama has held a double-digit lead over McCain in California in every poll but one this year. In April the Democrat led by just seven points.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Daily

Unlike voters in much of the country, California voters, a majority of whom last went for a

By comparison, 54% have a favorable view of Obama’s running mate Joseph Biden, and just 38% regard him unfavorably. Forty-two percent (42%) say Obama made the right pick, while 32% disagree.

Palin is considered at least somewhat conservative by 83% of California voters, including 58% who describe her as Very Conservative. Biden is considered at least somewhat liberal by 47%, with 17% saying he is Very Liberal. Over one-third (35%) say he is a moderate.

McCain is viewed favorably and unfavorably by just under half of voters. Sixty-four percent (64%) regard Obama favorably, while 35% have an unfavorable view of him. These numbers are similar to the findings a month ago.

Obama has 77% of the state’s Hispanic vote.

Swing states...just like four years ago?

Key quote: "Results from four of the five battleground states in the FOX News/Rasmussen Reports polling are similar to the presidential election four years ago. Virginia, however, is more competitive than it was in 2004."

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Election 2008: Georgia Presidential Election

Georgia: McCain Hold on to Strong Lead in Red State

John McCain has expanded his lead over Barack Obama in Georgia. The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the state finds the

Republican

on top 54% to 43%.

Last month,

McCain held a seven-point lead in the Peach State. The race in Georgia has remained relatively steady since tracking began in March.

Libertarian candidate Bob Barr, who served in Congress as part of Georgia’s Congressional delegation, receives very little support from voters in the state.

While McCain and Obama earn identical support from their own parties, McCain leads 59% to 31% among unaffiliated voters. McCain earns equal support from both men and women.

McCain is viewed favorably by 67% of Georgia voters, and unfavorably by 32%. Obama’s numbers are 50% favorable, 49% unfavorable.

George W. Bush won Georgia twice by double digits.

Bill Clinton

narrowly carried the state in 1992 but lost it to Bob Dole in 1996. Rasmussen Markets data shows that McCain is currently given a 90.3 % chance of winning Georgia’s fifteen Electoral College votes this fall. House. Voters are evenly divided on Biden--42% think Biden would be prepared for the presidency, 43% disagree. Presidential Tracking Poll and the Electoral College projections. Just 23% of voters say that this year’s campaign is more negative than most and all four candidates get relatively high marks for ethics. job.

As for the candidates’ running mates, Sarah Palin is viewed favorably by 62% and unfavorably by 37%. Joe Biden’s ratings are less flattering; 43% have a favorable view of the Senator, while 51% view him unfavorably.

While just 34% of voters say Biden was a good VP choice for Obama, 62% say Palin was a good choice for McCain. However, 50% of voters do not think Palin is ready to be president if the situation arises. Thirty-nine percent (39%) think the Alaskan Governor is ready to take over the White

Nationally, the race remains close in both the Rasmussen Reports daily

Most voters in Georgia (70%) favor oil drilling off the coast of Georgia, while just 18% are opposed.

The survey also found that just 34% of voters believe former Georgia politician and President Jimmy Carter should have been given the chance to speak at the Democratic National Convention, while 38% disagree.

President George W. Bush earns good or excellent ratings from 37% of Georgia voters, while 46% say he is doing a poor

Obama leads in New Jersey

Election 2008: New Jersey Presidential Election

New Jersey: Obama By 13

New Jersey voters arent likely to see a lot of the Presidential candidates between now and Election Day. In fact, Barack Obamas lead over John McCain is significant enough that Garden State voters may be even be spared the need to endure too many Presidential campaign commercials this year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in New Jersey finds Obama attracting 55% of the vote while McCain earns just 42%. Thats a slightly bigger cushion than he enjoyed a month ago.

Both presidential candidates are viewed favorably by Garden State voters-60% have a favorable opinion of Obama while 58% say the same about McCain.

As for the running mates, 60% have a favorable opinion of Delaware Senator Joe Biden while 44% say the same about Alaska Governor Sarah Palin.

Forty-two percent (42%) say that Obama made the right choice with Biden while an identical percentage say McCain made the right choice with Palin. A larger number (46%) said that McCain made the wrong choice while only 34% said that of Obama.

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains very close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Fifty percent (50%) of New Jersey voters say that the economy is the top voting issue of Election 2008. Nineteen percent (19%) say national security.

Rasmussen Markets data gives Obama an 88.7 % chance of winning New Jerseys 15 electoral votes this November. George H.W. Bush in 1988 was the last Republican presidential candidate to carry New Jersey where no Republican has won a statewide office since 1997. John Kerry carried New Jersey over President Bush -- 53% to 46% -- in 2004.

Just 26% now say that President Bush is doing a good or an excellent job while 56% rate his job performance as poor.

New Jersey remains ranked as 'Likely Democratic' in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.