Obama in the Midwest

October 08, 2008

Obama's "pork" projector

Key quote: “While we were working to eliminate pork-barrel earmark projects, he voted for nearly $1 billion in pork-barrel earmarks, including $3 million for an overhead projector at a planetarium in Chicago, Ill.,”

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September 18, 2008

Press release on Midwest attitude's towards Obama

OBAMA AND MCCAIN IN TIGHT RACE IN BIG TEN BATTLEGROUND POLL
50 PERCENT OF ILLINOIS VOTERS SAY GENDER SHOULD TRUMP PARTISANSHIP
 
EVANSTON, Ill. --- In the inaugural Big Ten Battleground Poll, taken as the nation’s financial crisis worsened this week, John McCain and Barack Obama were in a statistical dead heat in seven of the eight Midwest states included in the survey.
 
The surveys show a tight race in all of the Big Ten states except Illinois, Obama’s home state, where he holds a 16-point lead over McCain. The two candidates are tied in Iowa and Pennsylvania, and Obama has just a one-point lead in Ohio and Wisconsin. McCain is ahead in just one state – Indiana -- where he leads by 4 percentage points.
 
Victoria DeFrancesco Soto, an assistant professor of political science at Northwestern University who specializes in campaigns, elections and group identities is among the election experts who co-directed the poll. She was particularly interested in how people are negotiating group identities of race, partisanship and gender in evaluating the candidates and ultimately their voting choice.
 
“Fifty percent of likely Illinois voters said partisanship should be secondary to gender,” DeFrancesco Soto said. “That goes against what we know about classic American voting behavior. Partisanship has always been a predictor of voting choice. But these results suggest that maybe gender group identity, and not necessarily partisan group identity, is driving voting decisions.’”
 
The poll was co-directed by University of Wisconsin-Madison political scientists Charles Franklin and Ken Goldstein, with colleagues, including DeFrancesco Soto, from participating Big Ten schools. <http://www.bigtenpoll.org>
 
The individual surveys of 600 randomly selected registered voters -- in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Indiana, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota -- were conducted by phone from Sept. 14 to 17. The poll also included a nationally representative sample of 1,114 respondents, with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. That survey shows Obama with a one-point margin over McCain.
 
“The close margins in the vast majority of states show that whatever the effects were immediately after the national party conventions, these states have moved back to a highly competitive status, with neither candidates having a clear lead, except in Illinois,” said Franklin, Big Ten Battleground Poll director and co-developer of Pollster.com.
 
“We’re seeing the race tighten,” said DeFrancesco Soto. “We’re not seeing states change from blue to red or vise versa, but the firm tightening of the race is surprising, because Bush’s approval ratings are so incredibly low. With McCain being in the same party and being linked with Bush, you would expect Obama to have a wider margin.”
 

Key battlegrounds in the 2004 election, the eight states included in the poll are home to the 11 universities in the Big Ten conference. The results of the poll show that they are among the most competitive in the country and are likely to be pivotal in determining the election outcome.

 
“We all expected this to be tight -- it’s extraordinarily tight,” said Goldstein, director of the Wisconsin Advertising Project, which tracks political ads on television. “What it’s really going to come down to is the next president is going to be the one to win the Big Ten.”
 
More findings:
 
Across all states in the Midwest poll, voters overwhelmingly said the country is going in the wrong direction. President George W. Bush has a favorability rating ranging from 30 to 40 percent, and more than eight in 10 voters in the poll think the nation’s economy has gotten worse during the last year.
 
McCain and Obama both have favorable ratings above 50 percent in each of the eight states. Sarah Palin was viewed favorably by about half of voters across the region. Twelve to 18 percent of voters in each state had no opinion of the Republican vice presidential candidate.
 
The majority of voters in each of the eight states said Obama was the better candidate to bring about change. More than two-thirds of voters in each state said McCain was the more experienced candidate. Voters were split about evenly in each of the states on the question of which candidate shares their values.
 
Obama has an advantage among women in the region, including double-digit leads over McCain in Iowa, Illinois, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. Among Catholic voters, McCain leads in five of the eight states and by large margins in Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania. The poll found Catholics in Indiana and Illinois favor Obama by significant margins.
 
 
For more details about the poll, including a list of poll contacts at each of the participating universities, visit http://www.bigtenpoll.org.
 
The results of this rare regional poll — a partnership involving eight Big Ten universities — were unveiled in a 90-minute show called “Big Ten Battleground: Campaign 2008,” which aired at 3 p.m. CDT (4 p.m. EDT) today (Sept. 18) on the Big Ten Network.
 
Universities participating in the partnership are the University of Illinois, the University of Iowa, the University of Michigan, Michigan State University, Northwestern University, Ohio State University, Penn State University and University of Wisconsin-Madison.
 
The Big Ten Battleground Poll will be repeated in mid-October, with the results presented in another installment of the show on the Big Ten Network.

September 11, 2008

Obama Maintains Lead in Battleground Michigan

Election 2008: Michigan Presidential Election

Thursday, September 11, 2008

Michigan has cast its votes for the Democratic presidential candidate in four straight elections, and Barack Obama is trying to extend that streak. He currently holds a five point advantage--51% to 46%--over John McCain in this important battleground state.

Those figures are little changed from a month ago when Obama held a 49% to 45% lead (with leaners).

Nationally, the race between Obama and McCain remains close in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Michigan is increasingly viewed as one of a handful of states that the election will turn on, so both candidates are now spending more on ads there. It was one of the first states McCain visited with his new running mate Sarah Palin following last week's Republican National Convention.

Obama is now viewed favorably by 58% of Michigan voters, up from 54% a month ago.

McCains favorability rating continues to fall. It's now at 52%, down from 54% a month ago and 60% in July.

Obama has an eight-point lead among women, but the candidates are essentially even among men.

McCain leads handily among regular churchgoers while Obama has the edge among those who rarely or never attend services.

As for the running mates, 53% have a favorable opinion of Palin while 52% say the same about Joseph Biden. However, opinions are much stronger about the Alaska governor-37% have a Very Favorable opinion of her while just 23% are that pleased with the longtime Delaware senator.

Fifty-two percent (52%) say McCain made the right choice when he asked Palin to join the Republican ticket.

Forty-two percent (42%) say Obama made the right choice of a running mate. Biden himself made headlines yesterday by suggesting that Hillary Clinton might have been a better option for Obama.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of Michigan voters say the economy is the top issue of Election 2008. Just 21% see national security issues as the highest priority.

Michigans 17 Electoral College votes have gone to the Democratic candidates in the last four presidential elections. Rasmussen Markets <http://markets.rasmussenreports.com/> data shows that Obama is currently given a 64.9 % chance of winning the state this year. At the time this poll was released, Michigan was ranked as Leans Democratic in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator. NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

Now 31% of Michigan voters think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, but most (52%) say he is doing a poor job.

The survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations, Inc.

August 18, 2008

The one state Obama is sure to win

Key quote: "The fact that Sen. Barack Obama is popular at home in Illinois precludes any doubt that his home state’s big cache of 21 electoral votes will be in his column."

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July 14, 2008

Breaking Poll News

Minnesota: Obamas lead over McCain climbs to 18%

Barack Obamas lead over John McCain in Minnesota has now grown to 18%, all at the expense of voters who have moved out of the Republicans column, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey.

For the second month in a row, 52% back Obama, compared to 34% who now support McCain. But last month McCain had the support of 39% of Minnesota voters.

When leaners are factored in, Obama leads McCain by 17% -- 54% to 37%.

Obama has maintained a 13- to 15-point lead in four out of the previous five monthly polls. The only exception came in mid-March - soon after McCain wrapped up his partys nomination and the controversial remarks of Obamas pastor, Jeremiah Wright, were first reported -- when McCain was within four points of his Democratic opponent.

While Obama and McCain maintain the support of more than eight out of 10 members of their respective parties, both have lost ground among unaffiliated voters, 25% of whom remain undecided. Obama leads McCain 45% to 23% among the unaffiliated, but both are down 7% from early June.

The Democrat outpolls his Republican opponent nearly two-to-one among women voters 57% to 30%. He also has the support of 45% of men versus 39% who back McCain.

Nationally, Obama and McCain are very competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Democrats are currently given an 77.0 % chance of winning Minnesotas 10 Electoral College votes in November (results updated on a 24/7 basis by market participants). Minnesota has gone for the Democratic presidential candidate in every election since 1976, the longest streak in the nation, although by much smaller margins in the last two contests. Minnesota is considered a Likely Democratic state in the Rasmussen Reports Balance of Power Calculator NOTE: Factors other than the latest Rasmussen Reports poll impact the Balance of Power ratings. The current status is indicated on the table in the upper right hand corner of this article.

The favorability ratings of both McCain and Obama continue to climb in Minnesota. McCain is regarded favorably by 56% of voters, up from 54% in June, while 65% view the Democratic candidate in a similar light, a 5% increase since last month.

Forty-one percent (41%) of Minnesota voters regard the economy as the most important issue in the presidential campaign, with national security, the key issue in the 2004 election cycle, now ranked first by only 20%.

Unlike the majority of voters, 50% in Minnesota say it is more important to protect the environment than to reduce the record price of gas at the pump. Only 30% say reducing gas prices is more important.

While 48% favor overturning the ban on offshore oil drilling, a position first espoused by McCain and since endorsed by President Bush, 33% disagree. Again, unlike the majority nationwide, half of Minnesota voters (50%) do not believe offshore drilling is likely to drive down the price of gas. Only 41% believe it is likely to have that effect.

Forty-seven percent (47%) oppose drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR) in Alaska, but 40% are in favor of it. Democrats in Congress have consistently opposed offshore drilling and the opening of ANWR for environmental reasons.

However, a majority of Minnesota voters (51%) oppose returning to 55 mph speed limits, and even more (56%) say thats not the way to reduce gas and oil prices. Those figures are close to the national average.

Only 24% think President Bush is doing a good or excellent job, down from 30% last month, while 58% rate his performance as poor. Nationally, the president continues to set record low ratings for job performance.

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This survey was conducted in partnership with Fox Television Stations Inc.

This telephone survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports July 10, 2008. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence.

July 11, 2008

John McCain, Barack Obama campaign in key Midwest states

Key Quote: "Democrat Barack Obama focused on energy today while Republican John McCain campaigned on women's issues as the presidential campaigns turned to two pivotal Midwest states."

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July 04, 2008

Obama Uses Lessons From Chicago

Key quote: "When Barack Obama launched his presidential campaign, he called his three years as a community organizer in Chicago in the 1980s ``the best education I ever had.'' He's putting those lessons to good use in his drive for the White House, say many of those who worked with him then."

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Obama Family Celebrates Fourth of July in Montana

Key quote: "Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama celebrated the Fourth of July with his family in Montana.

Cheers greeted Obama, his wife, Michelle, and their two daughters as they arrived to watch the town parade. The crowd also broke into song, singing a rendition of "Happy Birthday" for Obama's oldest daughter, Malia, who turned 10 on Friday."

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Obama Campaign Promises Investment in Montana

Key quote: "As John McCain returned from his visit to Latin America, Barack Obama ventured into what might seem like foreign territory.

The presumptive Democratic presidential nominee is spending his Fourth of July weekend in several Republican states, as polls show him taking some surprising leads over his GOP rival.

He and his family attended an Independence Day parade Friday in Butte, Mont., and were hosting a “family picnic” later in the day."

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July 02, 2008

Obama Appeals to Republican-leaning States

Key quote: "The Mansfield, Ohio, town square hasn't seen a Democratic presidential candidate since John F. Kennedy in 1960. Barack Obama may change that."

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